New Homes Market Statistics

April 2012 – Calgary New Homes Market Statistics

.

Single Family New Homes Stats (scroll down for condo stats)

Market Analysis: What the Numbers are Telling Us

Over the past two years single family new homes inventory has been climbing steadily as new listings gradually outpace sales however inventory by itself is largely a meaningless number. The current market climate can be much more easily measured by the Absorption Rate, which measures in months how long it would take to sell all current inventory if no new inventory were added to the market. With a measure between 2 and 3 1/2 months generally being considered to represent a balanced market, we haven’t seen a balanced market in new mls listed homes since 2007. February saw this figure drop again, continuing the downward trend towards a balanced market started in January. While I would not expect to see a balanced market in the coming months sales of new homes should continue at a healthy pace for the first half of this year.

Meanwhile expect housing starts to increase. The fourth chart shows that there is little or no correlation between housing starts and inventory, nor do housing starts predict sales. However, sales do at times predict housing starts. If the trend continues we should expect to see an increase in housing starts in the coming months resulting in an increase in inventory by the 3rd and 4th quarters of this year.

New Condo Stats

Market Analysis: What the Numbers are Telling Us

Apartment and townhouse sales over the past three years have barely kept pace with new listings, resulting in the listings and inventory lines in the chart below showing as virtual carbon copies of each other. With an increase in multi-family housing starts in the latter half of 2011 expect to see an increase in condo inventory in the coming months. If sales do not keep pace there`s another spike coming in the New Condos Absorption Rate, representing a strong buyer`s market on the horizon, although I strongly doubt it will be as severe as the spikes in late 2007 and mid 2010. Sales in 2011 did improve over the previous year so this scenario is by no means certain, however in any event the buyer`s market will continue to some degree for the foreseeable future.